Kieran Brady Undergraduate Dissertation 2016/17

Development of a Cellular Automaton to Model the Spread of Ebola in Africa

Supervised by D.Walker

Abstract

Without a doubt, Ebola is one of the deadliest viruses the world has ever seen. The recent 2014-2016 outbreak in West Africa infected a total of 28,646 people and claimed the lives of 11,323. It was the most widespread outbreak of Ebola ever recorded and serves as a stark reminder that we still have a long way to go in the eradication of this disease. Although there are no licensed vaccines at present, a December 2016 study reported that a new vaccine had been extremely effective in preventing Ebola infections.

As up until recently there has been no viable cure, prevention and containment have been the only tools available to minimise casualties in an outbreak. Indeed, these will still need to be handled effectively should future outbreaks occur. To aid containment of the disease it can be useful to have a prediction of where the disease is expected to be, and when, and this is the premise on which this work is based.

A simulation of the spread of Ebola is created which allows a day by day progression of the disease's spread to be visualised, along with an output of the estimated total number of people infected, exposed, dead, recovered, and still susceptible.

From repeat simulations, it can be clearly seen that the most effective method of containment is the closure of all air travel to and from the affected area. A rapid response is also crucial to ensure the disease is kept away from areas with a high population density, thus limiting its spread.